Sri Lanka during the British days was considered a pearl of the Indian Ocean. Strategically Napoleon once said that who would control Trincomalee port in Sri Lanka would control the Indian Ocean. Currently the island has become restive after the President Mahinda Rajapaksa called the presidential election.
Nearly two years ahead of schedule, Sri Lanka will go to the polls on January 8, with 68-year-old President set to run for a third six year term - a move widely seen as an attempt by the President to seek a fresh six-year mandate amid signs of fading popularity. The question is: Has he gambled his political fate?

Rajapaksa, who first came to power in 2005, won again election in 2010 with a landslide (58 percent of the electorate of 10.4 million). He removed two-term limit for the President through a constitutional amendment. Opposition say that he has become a “dictator” in the country because all the state institutions have been politicized and under the control of his family members.

Constitutional interpretation
The President’s seeking for a third term, according to the opposition and many legal experts, is illegal under the constitution because the language of the 18th amendment to the Sri Lankan constitution must be interpreted as prospective and not retrospective. This simply means that in fact the amendment did not remove the two-term limit for Rajapaksa, but only for future office-holders.

Therefore his re-election bid is considered as serious violation of the constitution and if he is elected, he cannot assume his office of the Presidency.

Meanwhile a political surprise was provided to the President when his former health minister, and general secretary of the President’s party Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), Maithripala Sirisena left his government and the party (SLFP) to contest against his President. The surprise move has sparked an exodus from the party. So far, 10 legislators have left the ruling party for the opposition United National Party. The candidacy of Sirisena has split the ruling party.

“I am grateful to the UNP for choosing the general secretary of the SLFP to be their candidate,” he added. “We will definitely win.” Sirisena made his announcement at a press conference in Colombo, seated alongside three other ministers and former Sri Lankan president Chandrika Kumaratunga, who is the main patron of the president’s party.

A strongly Sinhala Buddhist nationalist party, the JHU has been an important supporter of Rajapaksa’s hardline policies during the war and after. Interestingly, JHU has now decided to join the opposition party and supported Srisena. Their departure, combined with that of Sirisena and his SLFP allies, has badly damaged the ruling coalition and weakens Rajapaksa’s chances of winning considerably.

Backed by the main opposition, UNP, Sirisena has vowed to abolish the president’s executive powers and strengthen Parliament and the judiciary. The Sri Lankan opposition has agreed to form an all-party government if it wins the presidential election. The joint opposition has also noted that the current preferential voting system in Sri Lanka will be abolished and a new electoral system will be introduced.

Voting likely to be close
All indications are that if the vote is free and fair, the race will be close. There appears to be a lot of enthusiasm for the candidacy of Maithripala Sirisena, who has assembled a formidable opposition coalition. At the same time, President Rajapaksa remains popular among many Sinhalese voters, is a skilled politician and has the ability to marshal the full resources of the state in his favour.

The President’s administration has been accused of corruption and nepotism, and is under intense international pressure to probe war crimes allegations and promote reconciliation with the country’s Tamil minority following a decades-long civil war. He has ignored all these serious allegations.

Domestically, his principal challenge will be to chart a course of reconciliation with the Tamils; to ensure the rights of Muslims and evangelical Christians who have been subjected to regular attacks by militant Buddhists; and to address the deep concerns over corruption and concentration of power that the current opposition campaign is highlighting.

Nonetheless, his government will still face serious questions at the UN Human Rights Council, which next March will debate a report now being prepared by the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on alleged war crimes by the Sri Lankan military and the Tamil Tigers.

Should Rajapaksa win a re-election without a free and fair polls, it would not be acceptable to the people. The constitutional legality would be questioned and his challenges at home and abroad will become much more serious. And whatever happens a questionable win for Rajapaksa would make the whole Sri Lankan political scenario volatile and uncertain.

There is a trust deficit between the two sides. Rajapaksa’s critics apprehend that in the event opposition candidate Sirisena wins the election, President Rajapaksa and his powerful brothers may resist leaving power. Rumours suggest that even if Sirisena wins narrowly, it would create an uncertainty over peaceful transfer of power. This could result in a long period of legal wrangling and uncertainty.

Poll monitors are arriving
Should Rajapaksa claim victory through a means that the opposition considers illegal, a legal challenge would likely be lodged before the Supreme Court, which few observers consider an independent body following the installation of a Rajapaksa loyalist as chief justice in 2013. (in January 2013, Rajapaksa’s Parliament impeached the 43rdChief Justice of Sri Lanka Ms. Shirani Bandaranayake on charges of financial impropriety and interference in cases).
There are also fears that the military, which is under the control of the president and his brother, Gotabaya Rajapaksa as defence minister, could be called in to ensure Rajapaksa remains in power.

However, there are also other constraints for the government. For example, a total of 104 international observers from the Commonwealth and the Forum of South Asian Electoral Observation began to arrive in Sri Lanka from Dec 27 to monitor the polls. Besides, Western governments have informed the Colombo government that they should allow election monitors full access to all parts of the country and to effective monitoring of the voting. Most important, those governments concerned with stability in Sri Lanka have sent clear messages to the Rajapaksa government that they must respect democratic processes and resist any temptation to cling to power through violent or extra-constitutional means.

All such scenarios remain speculative and they are certainly in the minds of people and diplomats within the country.

The writer is former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.

(Holiday)