Bhutan, a country of 700,000 people, lies to the north of Bangladesh and is separated by 30 km of India’s territory. It shares land borders with both India and China.



Last April, Bhutan voted for 20-member National Council, the upper house of parliament whose members have no party affiliation and monitor the government’s actions, review legislation and advise the King.



Bhutan held its second general elections for the lower house of parliament on July 13, the latest step in Thimphu’s gradual progression toward democracy under constitutional monarchy of King Jigme Khesar Wangchuck.



Bhutan’s main opposition party has won a landslide majority in parliamentary elections. The official website of Bhutan’s Election Commission says the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 32 seats in the 47-member national assembly, with the ruling Peace and Prosperity Party (DPT) winning only15 seats.



The country’s chief election commissioner, Kunzang Wangdi, said a total of 850 polling stations had been set up, many of them in remote mountain villages. About 400,000 people were eligible to cast their ballots in the polls. Estimates indicated that more than 80 percent of the electorate has voted.



Tshering Tobgay to be Prime Minister replacing Jigmi Y Thinley



It was the second round of voting of the second parliamentary election in the Himalayan kingdom’s history. At the first round in last May, it is reported that the opposition party People’s Democratic Party (PDP) received 35% of the votes, while the ruling Bhutan Peace and Prosperity Party DPT bagged 45%.



At the first general election of 2008, the ruling party DPT won a landslide victory. However, this second general election presented a totally different picture as it was a tough fight with the opposition PDP.

PDP leader US- educated Tshering Tobgay (46) is likely to take office on 23rd July as prime minister of the new government. Tobgay was the leader of the opposition in the outgoing parliament.



Observers believe that journalists have helped citizens to differentiate the policies of the contesting parties. Voters were aware of some failures of the government. In one infamous case, Bhutan’s judiciary reportedly found a home minister and a speaker of the National Assembly guilty of appropriating state land and allotting it to relatives.



Voters seem to have punished the ruling party for the misuse or abuse of powers by their members. The foremost cause of the defeat of the ruling party was lack of accountability and pervasive corruption.



Candidates have promised rural constituents that they would try to remove their disparity of income while the expansion of economy takes place. Although annual GDP growth stood of 8.8% since 2008, poverty and youth unemployment have not gone away.

India –a factor in politics



“Self-reliant Bhutan” is the slogan that many Bhutanese candidates have adopted in this year’s general election. During the election campaign India has always been a factor in politics of Bhutan. The Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 1949 was revised in 2007. The words in the 1949 Treaty “external relations” of Bhutan will “be guided by India” have been replaced by the phrase that both countries shall “cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests.”



Furthermore Bhutan is a land-locked state and depends largely on India for its exports and imports. Nearly 60% of Bhutan’s exports reach the Indian market and Bhutan buys 75% of its total imports from India alone.



The recent decision to withdraw subsidies on cooking gas and kerosene by India has led to rising fuel prices in Bhutan as the country has been struggling under a credit crunch and import restrictions, after running out of Indian rupee supplies last year on soaring demand.



The Indian justification for the cuts was argued as purely financial. New Delhi’s domestic budget deficits and fiscal consolidation apparently forced it to withhold the generosity to Bhutan.



But observers believe India’s action was to show unhappiness over the Bhutanese out-going prime minister’s cozying up to China. However on 11th July India reportedly said that it would not make Bhutan “suffer” and settle the issue with the new government



The withdrawal of India’s subsidy to Bhutan seems to have a negative impact on the ruling party for not managing economy including rising of fuel prices “People blame the incumbent government for not addressing the economy which is in a very bad shape, and the subsidy cut — all this seems to be adding to their woes,” said political analyst Kencho Wangdi.



Balanced policy between China and India



A few Bhutanese opinion-makers have gone so far as to call for a rethink of their country’s “Look South” policy of dependence on India for all economic and military needs. They argue that Bhutan should move toward “equidistance” between India and China and have been emboldened by reports from China’s state-owned Global Times that the ruling party-DPT has made overtures toward Beijing.



Bhutan, with its heavily Tibetan Buddhist population, has no official diplomatic relations with China. But international media organisations such as the Economist have suggested that Thimpu has considered formalising links with Beijing in settling the land border dispute between China and Bhutan. This could be settled if Bhutan would agree to the Chinese proposal that Bhutan would exchange its territory on the western side with Tibet along the Chumbi valley in return of Chinese territory in Tibet on the northern side.



However, both the parties–DPT and PDP– have reportedly downplayed the “media hype” about Bhutan’s deteriorating ties with India. But suspicion for Indian dominance in Bhutan will only increase as free media and political rivalries develop alongside Bhutan’s democracy.



Bhutan’s Prime Minister-elect Tshering Tobgay has recently said his country would not undermine Delhi’s sensibilities and interests, which, many in India thought were not taken care of by his predecessor, Jigmi Y Thinley.



“I would like to reassure the people of India that Bhutan is fully cognizant of India’s sensibilities and interests, and will not in any way undermine them,” Tobgay said in response to a question on Delhi’s reported reservations on last year’s meeting between Thinley and then Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Rio.



As regards ties with Bejing, Tobgay remarked, “Our relations with China will align with the 1998 agreement to “Maintain Peace and Tranquillity on the Bhutan-China Border Areas”. He added, “Bhutan’s foreign policy follows the principle of fostering peace and goodwill with all nations, while being mindful of our own geopolitical realities.”



Conclusion



Observers believe that the best bilateral relationships are based on mutual respect and acknowledging the bilateral issues and sensitivities of both sides. Whatever differences they have must be sorted out peacefully. In that context, India may try to invent a new relationship with Bhutan which is not being perceived as “big brotherly” and intimidating. No country appreciates being pushed around by a big neighbour.



If India continues to pursue “Gujral doctrine” meaning not exacting reciprocity from smaller neighbours, a wind of change of attitude towards India will emerge. Some analysts say India should help Bhutan to stand on its feet and act as a catalyst to promote democratic practices in the county for greater interest for South Asia.



Barrister Harun ur Rashid, Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
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