The 20th Session of the UN Global Change Conference (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change –UNFCC) commenced on 2nd December in Lima (Peru). During the two-week conference, the aim of negotiators in Lima is, for the first time, to produce a draft agreement in which every nation commits to a domestic plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to be signed by world leaders next year in December in Paris. This is a big ask for the global community from the delegates of the conference, given the varying national interests of the nations attending the Lima Conference.

Since 1992, the United Nations has convened an annual climate change summit meeting aimed at forging a deal to curb greenhouse gases, which are produced chiefly by burning coal for electricity and gasoline for transportation. But previous agreements, such as the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, included no requirements that developing nations, such as India and China, cut their emissions. And until now, the United States has never headed into those summit meetings with a domestic climate change policy in place.

There are some encouraging signs for the Lima Conference which are: First the UN climate summit was held on 23rd September 2014 which was the largest high-level climate meeting since 2009. Hosted by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, it aimed to encourage 120 member states to sign up to a comprehensive new global climate agreement at talks in Paris next year. As he closed the summit, Ban hailed the meeting, saying “never before have so many leaders gathered to commit to action on climate change”

Second, the meeting comes just weeks after a landmark announcement in November this year by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China committing the world’s two largest carbon polluters to cuts in their emissions. United Nations negotiators say they believe that advancement could end a longstanding impasse in the climate talks, spurring other countries to sign similar commitments.

Third, in June, President Obama announced a new Environmental Protection Agency rule forcing major emissions cuts from coal-fired power plants. The United States will cut its emissions up to 28 percent by 2025. Furthermore Obama made climate change a defining issue and with strong support from the US Secretary of State John Kerry, it represents willingness of the US to sign a legally binding agreement for reduction of carbon emission

“I was encouraged by the U.S.-China agreement,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University and a member of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global body of scientists that produces regular reports on the state of climate science.

Challenges
Although reduction of carbon emission is related to economic growth of developing countries and it is very difficult to balance economic growth and degradation of environment, there are some encouraging signs that the world leaders have realised that something concrete needs to be done to reduce carbon emission, otherwise human being would not be able to live on the earth which would be so much polluted making it uninhabitable. Under the circumstances, there would not be any meaning of economic growth for people within a country.

India is the third- largest carbon polluter, behind China and the US. Indian Minister of state for environment, forests and climate change Prakash Javadekar said “We are serious. (Modi) is committed (on climate change issues). We are doing our action but it is not at somebody’s dictation, it is on our own volition,” he said.

In New York, he said to the media the government would provide access to electricity to 20% of India’s population in the coming decades and experts say as India would provide access to electricity to more than 300 million, its carbon emissions are projected to double, surpassing those of the US and China.

Experts say Indian position appears to be a blow to hopes of reaching an international treaty to cut its greenhouse gas emissions at the Paris Climate Conference in 2015 unless it changes its position and agree to reduce greenhouse gases within a certain time period.

While scientists and climate-policy experts welcome the new momentum ahead of the Lima talks, they warn that it now may be impossible to prevent the temperature of the planet’s atmosphere from rising by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. According to a large body of scientific research, that is the tipping point at which the world will be locked into a near-term future of drought, food and water shortages, melting ice sheets, shrinking glaciers, rising sea levels and widespread flooding — events that could harm the world’s population and economy.

Recent reports show that there may be no way to prevent the planet’s temperature from rising, given the current level of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere and the projected rate of emissions expected to continue before any new deal is carried out.. A November report by the United Nations Environment Program concluded that in order to avoid the 3.6 degree increase, global emissions must peak within the next 10 years, going down to half of current levels by mid-century.

But the deal being drafted in Lima will not even be enacted until 2020. And the structure of the emerging deal — allowing each country to commit to what it can realistically achieve, given each nation’s domestic politics — means that the initial cuts by countries will not be as stringent as what scientists say is required.

China’s plan calls for its emissions to peak in 2030. Government officials in India, the world’s third-largest carbon polluter, have said they do not expect to see their emissions decline until at least 2040.

Many island nations are looking into buying farmland in other countries to grow food and, eventually, to relocate their populations. For example Maldives has been seriously considering to buy lands in Australia and in other countries. In Lima, those countries are expected to demand that a final deal include aid to help them adapt to the climate impacts that have already arrived.

Bangladesh
Given the physical characteristics of Bangladesh, it is extremely vulnerable to global climate change and the total environment of soil, air and water will degrade so much that the country is in danger of being a text book example of what global climate change could bring adverse impact on a country. A 2007 report of UK Department for International Development (DFID) of presents a bleak picture of Bangladesh by 2030.

At the UN Climate summit in September, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina urged the large carbon emitting countries to make their robust voluntary carbon reduction commitment to save the motherly earth from onslaught of climate change. “It’s our commitment to low-carbon and climate-resilient development path. The large emitting countries should reciprocate by robust voluntary commitments like ours,”

She said climate change may threaten the production of Bangladesh’s wheat and major rice crop (Boro). In addition, many people may have to move out, changing their traditional living and livelihood. Studies suggest that two to three percent of our GDP may be wiped out because of climate change, mentioned the PM.

She assured that Bangladesh as a responsible member of the international community would never exceed the average per-capita emission limit of the developing world.

Adaptation, said Sheikh Hasina, is the key for vulnerable countries like Bangladesh. “We can’t be left to adapt to ‘degradation’ because of climate change” she added. The PM said the issues of “adaptation” and “loss and damage” are also crucial for Bangladesh for sustainable development. Critical balance should be maintained between adaptation and mitigation. Support to finance, technology development and transfer and capacity building is also important as well, she observed.

She said every country should have a clear, measurable and verifiable Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Bangladesh is working on her possible INDCs, but new and additional resources would be needed for their implementation, mentioned the premier.

Conclusion
What is needed is sustainable use of energy which means that use of energy may be used in a way that “meets the needs of present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.

The question is to how to reverse the degradation of environment. In other words how to move towards a more sustainable energy system. It has been suggested that there should be greater use of renewable energy, including energy from the wind, waves of the sea, solar heat and crop wastes. Ambitious renewable energy targets and clever research and development strategies can help encourage the swift development and widespread deployment of renewable energy and energy-efficient technologies.

Bangladesh reportedly needs at least $2 billion every year to address the adverse effects of the global climate change and in the international conferences, Bangladesh is negotiating for a 50/50 ratio between mitigation and adaptation, with the latter focused on Bangladesh and other most vulnerable countries from the existing ratio 90/10 in favour of mitigation in larger developing countries such as India, Indonesia and Brazil.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid, Former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva

(Dhaka Courier)