During Second World War, when British army was annihilated in Dunkirk War everyone feared that German attack on London was imminent and the defeat of Great Britain in the War was inevitable. When Prime Minister Churchill was informed of the defeat, he said that – this was not their last war; they would turn this defeat into victory in near future. His prophecy was proved correct.

After the defeat of Awami League in four City Corporation elections in Bangladesh, some people speculated this was the Dunkirk War for Awami League. There is also fear among some political circles that Awami League would not be able to win the next general election. There is a sense of widespread gloom in Awami camp contrary to the overwhelming joy and celebration in BNP –Jamaat camp about their future victory.

In some political circle, it is a puzzle that after confronting Hefazot uprising on 5th May, 2013 successfully, how Awami League could face such a defeat in City Corporation elections within a span of such short time. Some pundits have remarked that people were not happy with Awami League’s administration for their failure to address major problems like the disaster in share-market, Hallmark corruption and their inability to solve problems in the sectors of electricity, gas and water etc.

The minority communities were not happy with the Government protection during communal disturbances. In recent past, when Hindus and Buddhists were attacked in Cox’s Bazar, Ramu and Satkaniya, the government failed to offer them proper protection in time.

Local Awami League MP’s failed to visit them and assure them of their safety. So, it was not surprising, in one constituency in Magura where Hindus were majority, an Awami League candidate was not only defeated but also became fourth in the municipal election.

Some pundits say that this time it is not BNP’s popularity but the Hefazot Propaganda which has influenced the result of the election. Religious sentiments were hugely manipulated and voters were made to believe that it was a fight between Islam and Kufr, if they voted for Awami League – that would go against Islam and the atheist will be victorious.

It was reported that in some places the Hefazot workers had compelled female voters to take oath by touching Holy Quran that they would vote for BNP. In the face of this propaganda, Awami League’s counter was quite weak and shy. Money played an important role in this election too.
It was alleged – a section of Awami workers and supporters were bribed heavily and they did not play their roles properly in the election campaign. A section of big media was not in favour of Awami League and played an anti-Awami role.

They published the accounts of properties of Awami candidates but not that of their opponents. They tried to influence the voters’ minds by constantly publishing anti-Awami League news.
If this scenario is repeated in the next general election, Awami League has no hope to come back to power. This election has proved that there was no rigging or manipulation and there was hope that BNP will no more insist on their demand for Care-taker Government but join the election under an interim government.

But still BNP is clamouring for Caretaker Government and has called a country-wide protest day against Government on 22nd June, 2013. After the victory of City Corporation elections, if BNP does not change their stand on the issue of Caretaker Government, political deadlock will continue and unwanted situations might arise. What next?

The government and the opposition will compete again in a City Corporation election in Gazipur. Awami League is now aware that one of the reasons of their defeat in last four elections was internal quarrel. In Barisal a rebel candidate stood against the Awami supported candidate and could not be persuaded to withdraw himself from the election easily. Awami supported candidate in Gazipur also was going to face a rebel candidate from his own party.

But this time Awami high command took strong measures and the rebel candidate has withdrawn his candidacy. It reflects Awami League’s organizational weakness and internal problems. The party high command realises that these problems must be sorted out before the next general election; otherwise the party will suffer the consequences.

It seems Awami League is surrounded by many opponents now. Some of them are not only opponents, but also deadly enemies. A section of civil society, big NGOs and media are against the government too. Though they claim themselves to be democrat, their criticisms are helping the opposition BNP and even Jamaat.
In a recent controversy over the arrest of a so-called editor of a Dhaka-daily, the editors’ syndicate took stand against the government. The prominent figures like Dr Kamal Hossain, Dr Yunus, Kader Siddiqui and others are constantly attacking this government; their attacks are especially aimed at Sheikh Hasina.

There is a speculation that there is going to be a united front under the patronization of some big NGOs to oust Sheikh Hasina from politics and to place a government in power which they claim would establish good governance in the country. At present this civil society very cleverly put all the blames on the politicians and the political parties of the country.

Though BNP is a political party, they are being benefited by that anti-politics propaganda, because the main target of that propaganda is Awami League and Sheikh Hasina.

Awami League is facing a big challenge. Whether they can survive the present ‘Dunkirk defeat’ and go for victory in the final battle with Churchillian zeal is to be seen. A prominent Awami League supporter told me they are now fighting in ten fronts. This is not only a political fight, but also an ideological fight.
The next election will determine whether this country will go for a democratic and secular future or succumb to the mediaeval pattern of a theocratic state. To complete an impossible mission i.e. to win this twofold battle in ten fronts Awami League should not go alone in the battlefield.

They must strengthen the present ‘Mahajot’ (The Great Alliance) and bring all the democratic and the secular forces under one banner. It was a great folly for Awami League to distance itself from Shahbag movement and to demoralise the young Turks. Awami League should free itself from ideological vacillation and come back to their original secular standpoint.

There are only few months left for Awami League to face a general election. If they can unite and organize the democratic forces of the country and fight back courageously there is still hope they would show ‘V’ sign like Churchill in the next general election.