In my childhood I was going to Dhaka from Barisal by a 'gohonar nouka' (a boat for carrying passenger across river at that time). When the boat was crossing Meghna a sudden storm started which turned quite violent. Immediately the boatman set sail in favour of the wind. He explained to the passengers that he could not take the boat near the bank as the storm could force it to the bank and the boat might sink. So it was safe to keep the boat in the mid stream.

The only danger was where the wind would take it was not known. It could take us to a safe place or to the sea which would be disastrous for the boat and passengers. We could only pray now that the wind would take the boat to a safe place. This happened a long time ago, in my childhood but I still remember that I was passenger in a boat which lost its destination in a fierce storm.

Now at the fag end of my life I consider Bangladesh a boat without destination in a political storm. Nobody can predict what will happen in Bangladesh tomorrow, whether the country is heading towards a peaceful future or a disaster. Are the political leaders or our so called civil society at all aware of this situation? There is no sign that they are conscious of the situation and eager to change it.

If both the ruling and opposition parties could take lessons from the past and could resolve the present problems the current session of the parliament could offer them the best possible opportunity. There was a hope when BNP declared that they would join the present session and place proposal for discussing caretaker government.

But they abandoned the proposal and on the very first day they walked out of the session on a very flimsy ground. It is still a cat and mouse game between the government and opposition in the parliament and it is clear that there is no sign of an immediate solution of the political deadlock.

The opposition was not even present on the first day of budget session. They have this uncompromising attitude that without the acceptance of their proposal for caretaker government they will not budge an inch. On the other hand, the government is determined to hold the election under interim government constituted by only elected people. The Prime minister Sheikh Hasina more than once invited opposition to place their demands and discuss it in the parliament. The opposition fears that their proposal will be rejected outright by government's 'brute majority'.

The actual dilemma is the mutual suspicion between the government and the opposition. If our so called civil society could prove their neutrality and could take a mediatory role between the two sides then there could be some hope without foreign interference. But a section of the so called civil society already took a stand to support caretaker government and to virtually oppose the government proposal.

Recently in The National Press Club in Dhaka in a meeting on the founding day of the Gono Oikya (people's unity) a man like Dr. Akbar Ali Khan again spoke strongly in favour of BNP's demand. He was himself an advisor of the caretaker government under president Iajuddin and witnessed the failure of that government. He had to resign after the collapse of that caretaker government.

He had seen the cracks, the abuses and the failure of that system and had to leave that government. It is a wonder he and other likeminded people are supporting the revival of that failed system again. Actually the issue is how to hold the incoming election in a free and fair way. Under what system it will be held is not the main issue.

We have seen the fraudulent election under party government and have also seen the same thing under the caretaker government.

So, the question is not the system of government during election but what safety clauses we can put on election procedure. Then the government and the opposition should sit together either inside or outside the parliament to evolve a formula on how to make election absolutely free from any interference.

But it seems in the present situation the opposition is bent upon to topple the government for their other motives and government is determined to keep their uncompromising attitude in spite of the countrywide destruction and violence by the opposition. If this situation continues then nobody knows towards which direction the country is heading. It looks like a passenger boat caught in a turbulent storm and headed towards an unknown destination.

Some observers say this quarrel between the two big political parties will pave the way for a third force to grab the power. The 1/11 may repeat again. My analysis says this will not happen but Awami League will have to fight a very tough war against opponents from different quarters. The next elections of city corporations will indicate the electoral position of Awami League in the country.

There is a horn's of dilemma for the party in power. If they win the election the opposition especially the BNP will definitely accuse the government of rigging the election and say it is not safe to allow the next election to be held under the present government. If the government supported nominees lose the election then opposition will certainly demand that Awami League has lost the support of the people and should resign immediately.

There is challenge from another front which Awami League will have to face-the coalition of some big NGO's and a section of civil society. It seems their main target is Sheikh Hasina but ultimate aim is to remove the two leaders from the power game and to establish an elected or non elected government in the name of good governance. A section of influential big media will support them.

The government of Sheikh Hasina survived many political storms sometimes bravely and sometimes cleverly. The recent fight on 5th May has brought a kind of victory for the government but if that victory will help them to ensure their return to power is uncertain. BNP is also not sure of their election victory that is why they are prolonging the political deadlock and is not willing to sit for a settlement immediately.

Whether the behind the scene game by the so called civil society to establish a Karzai type government in Bangladesh in place of the governance of the present two big parties will have people's support is very doubtful. Good or bad people are habituated by the governance of political parties.

Still the uncertainties remain and the future of the country would depend on the events of the next few months. There are hopes and expectation in the secularist circle that Sheikh Hasina will somehow survive the imminent storm by her courage and pragmatism like before.