As mankind was about to be ushered into 21st century the transition had been by sweeping victory for democracy the world over. For the first time in all history more people on the planet live under democracy than dictatorship, so declared President Clinton during his second inaugural address. The New York Times, after a close scrutiny of the claim, confirmed 3.1 billion people to be living under democracies and another 3.66 under assorted other systems.

Indeed, the demise of the Cold War brought in its wake a new mood of triumphalism for democracy with the fall of authoritarian regimes across the world and great majority of third world countries either practised or professed democracy could never scale during its long chequered history since the creed’s inception in Greek city states 2,500 years ago.

As regards the non-conformists it was earnestly hoped that the majoritarian propensity would ultimately result in the universilisation of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government. It is an apt moment for a fitting celebration for the world. Yet, far from a sense of euphoria, the winners of the long struggle for liberty observed at the best, a guarded optimism for the future of democracy. This is not without a reason.

At the turn of the century, in 1900 also the people believed in the inevitability of democracy even more firmly because its prospects looked equally bright with the coming of an age of peace and rationality after prolonged upheavals in war-torn Europe during the previous century. It was predicted that the man of 20th century would be hopeful man with unshakable trust in human ingenuity. Looking back it may be shocking to recall just how those hopes were shattered by hatred, irrationality and atrocity bringing mankind on the brink of peril.

Democracy striding triumphantly into 1900s found itself almost at once on the defensive. The Great War crudely brought down the old structure of security and democratic order and unleashed angry energies of revolutions against democracy. Bolshevism in Rushsia, Fascism in Italy, Nazism in Germany and militarism in Japan tore apart the democratic architecture. The great depression came along to explode the myth that democracy would guarantee prosperity. The democracy was despised as bourgeois civility and cowardice. In the wake of the Second World War democracy was virtually on retreat with barely a dozen democracies left on the planet.

Can’t something like this happen again? If democracy fails to deliver as it did several times also in the past, the history can, by all means, repeat itself. It was the political, economic and moral failures of democracy that handed the initiative over to authoritarianism. Even now if democracy cannot construct a humane, prosperous and peaceful world for all, the rise of an alternative creed is a clear possibility in the future. Even if fascism or communism cannot be resurrected the freedom can be denied to individuals or nations in multiple other ways. After all, modern democracy as experienced today the representative government, secret ballot and peaceful transfer of power is at the most 200 years old. Although a majority of world’s democracy now, such democratic ascendancies are mere flashes in the long vistas of recorded history.

One wonders how deeply democracy has really struck its root in non-democratic countries only recently wrested from the clutches of authoritarian regimes. There are factors which always put up challenges to democratic experimentation, particularly in its nascent stage. Now there are developments which have created few dynamics—never experienced before — to confront democracy. As the millennium comes to a close that is precisely the anxiety, the freedom-loving people across the world are seized with.

The most potent challenges to democracy in the 21st century will perhaps be coming from the gradual erosion of nation state under an inexorable force of globalisation which has already crashed across national frontiers. Democratic politics comes into play on the turf of nation state which is the traditional site for democracy to flourish. Some of the democracy’s institutions are synonymous, overlapping and interrelated with those of state. Therefore, once the state is weakened or diluted in its power and composition, the democracy is deprived of the base on which it rests.

The globalisation is about to obliterate the national identity – an essential ingredient of nation state. It has enfeebled national power of fiscal control, undercut national management of interest and exchange rates and denied nations the shaping of their own economic destiny. How can the democratic accountability be ensured under such conditions? How can democracy be evolved, nourished and perfected at all? The destruction or dilution of nation state is the first casualty of relentless global economy and democracy is the victim to the loss of its traditional turf.

Although modern democracy is the political offspring of technology and capitalism symbolised by industrial revolution, both pose strange new challenges to democracy now. The Industrial Revolution extended over generations and allowed time for human and institutional adjustment. The computer revolution does not allow that time and therefore the transition from Factory Age to Computer Age is far more traumatic than one from farm to factory. The tremendous acceleration of technology strains the bond of social control and political sovereignty. The computerised world has already posed problems for democracy in more than one way. Whereas Industrial Revolution created more jobs than it destroyed the computer revolution destroys more job than it creates, thus running contrary to democratic spirit of social wellbeing and fair play. It creates more rigid class barrier with the creation of technological aristocracy and an underclass composed of all who are outside.

What is however, more disturbing for democracy is an ominous prospect of computer affecting the traditional procedure of democratic politics. Now, the interactivity introduced by the computer revolution makes a state of democracy in which every citizen can participate in the conduct of public affair technically feasible on a national scale — at least in the advanced industrialised countries. A hyper-interactive state of democracy encourages instant responses but discourages pragmatic thoughts and offers outlet for demagoguery, egomania, insult and hate which all are prejudicial to healthy growth of democracy.

While the onrush of technology creates new problems, an unfettered capitalism within the framework of globalised economy has even more disruptive consequences. Democracy does require capitalism and private ownership but they are no guarantee for democracy as have been amply demonstrated by authoritarian regimes of Pinochet of Chile. Capitalism is, no doubt, the supreme engine of innovation, production and distribution, but its method heedless of little beyond its profits is destructive for democratic society. If capitalism is measured only in terms of making money out of it, its untrammeled intensification and spread of market values into all spheres of life will prove dangerous to open and democratic society.

The concepts of modern democracy are European inventions. In contrast to European ethos the Asian traditions value the group more than individual, order more than freedom. The Asian leaders have started to contrast oriental discipline and stability with discipline and stability with disorder and moral decadence in the individualistic west. They are no more prepared to accept western democratic standards without putting them to question as to whether they are of any relevance to them.

This assertion of Asian leaders is most likely to prove harmful for the spread of classical democracy as conceived in the west. The emerging count of Asia on the world scene, the absence of historical democratic tradition in Asia as well as the self-interest of some of the Asian rulers suggest a period of Asian resistance to the spread of the democratic ideas.

Perhaps no form of government needs great leaders so much as democracy. Because it is sustained by the skill and vision of the leaders whose intelligent diagnosis and guidance are essential for constant self-correction of the system. Democracy in 21st century must be able to manage the problems of nation state which will continue to decline as effective power unit of the creed. It must manage the pressure of Asian dissent, of technology, of unbridled capitalism and cope with growing frustration and yearnings of many million across the world.

Democracy has narrowly survived a turbulent twentieth century torn by wars and baffled by rapid rise of authoritarianism – both of communist and military version. In spite of a democratic revivalism after the Cold War it cannot be expected to enjoy a free ride through the next century. Apart from democracy’s inherent difficulty of transplanting it — essentially a western creation-to parts of the world with different cultures and traditions, democracy will have to run a gauntlet of challenges typical of the change of time. Any failure on the part of democracy will infuse Marxism with new life or invite the rise of variety of alternative creeds.

Brig (retd) Hafiz is a former DG of BIISS.