For a long time our subcontinent has been divided into many countries but still whatever happens in one country resonates in other countries like the pangs and pains shared between twins. The recent election victory of Nawaz Sharif with his Pakistan Muslim League (N) was described as return of democracy in Pakistan.

India also is now preparing for a general election and everybody hopes that democracy will triumph and continue. In Bangladesh a general election is imminent and there is a great hope that if all parties participate, through that election democracy will survive. After the debacle of fundamentalist forces to topple the government there is new hope that BNP will change its present stance and will join the election.

This scenario is almost like rainbow on the horizon but how long it will last nobody knows. With the hope for a better future there is also doubt in many people's mind that new clouds are gathering on the horizon against democracy and secularism which might shatter the democratic future of the subcontinent.

Recently Bangladesh has survived an attempted coup by fundamentalists supported by BNP. But in the next general election if held with the participation of the opposition who will win--secular or combined fundamentalist forces-- is still uncertain.

In Pakistan some people consider the victory of Nawaz Sharif as a sign of victory of democracy. They also think under a caretaker government the election, in spite the threat of Taliban was held peacefully and has produced a democratic government. There are exuberances of this victory in many quarters in India and Bangladesh also, but how long this euphoria will last is doubtful.

Though apparently the election in Pakistan was fair, now it is coming out that behind the scene Taliban was very much active to influence the result. Except Sindh, Bhutto's People's Party could not run their election campaign in any other provinces including Punjab and the son of Benazir Bilawal Bhutto had to flee the country under Taliban threat.

Nawaz's victory was easy and smooth because of his Taliban connection and Punjab's support with the help of a section of powerful military. In the former north western frontier province Wari Khan's National Awami Party could not go for an election campaign in the street because of the Taliban threat and the Taliban favoured Imran Khan's party and allowed them to run their campaign without any hindrances. The new Nawaz Sharif government though now is trying to appease India and also Americans how far they will succeed to keep a balance between Taliban and Indo-American camps remains to be seen.

It is feared in some Pakistani quarters also that Nawaz Sharif would have to follow the path of Erdogan, the present Turkish Prime minister who has also tilted towards fundamentalism and is now in confrontation with secular young Turks. The recent unrest in Turkey shows that the Erdogan government is in horns of a dilemma.

Their policy against Mustafa Kemal's secularism angered America and the western secular world also. In the long run whether Nawaz Sharif government in Pakistan could resist the Taliban influence and keep the Indo-American friendship is a big question.

The rise of Imran Khan, the ex cricketer in the former NWFP was favoured by Taliban.
So if Nawaz Sharif fails to play the subtle game of favouring the Taliban and make peace with India or America he may not survive for long. Imran Khan may emerge to fill up the gap and the hope for a stable democratic government in Pakistan out of the influence of fundamentalists may not be fulfilled. A section of analysts of Pakistan politics is not very certain about the stability of democracy in that country.

Now comes the situation in India. The main opposition party BJP seems on the way to promote Narendra Modi, the present Chief Minister of Gujarat as the future prime minister of India if their party wins the next election. BJP made Narendra Modi the Chief convenor of their election campaign.

In protest the veteran leader of BJP Mr. LK Advani, the octogenarian leader resigned from the party and came back after mass persuasion. When BJP was in central power and Atal Bihari Vajpei was prime minister, Advani was his deputy and it was expected that Advani will be his successor when the party came to power again.
But the party's choice for Narendra Modi as the chief of election campaign indicated clearly that they want to see him as the next Prime Minister of India instead of Advani. In the BJP camp Advani now is considered as a moderate, not an extreme communalist like Narendra Modi.

It is the proof, some observers say, that BJP is now turning towards extreme communalism again. Shiv Sena, an ex RSS are now dominating BJP again. A few years ago Narendra Modi was accused of ethnic (muslim) cleansing and mass murder. There was an incident in Godhra Railway Station in Gujarat and under his government's instigation and protection a communal riot started and more than two thousand Muslim male, female and children were massacred.

There was an incident during that riot which still angers the Muslim population of Gujarat. During that riot a Muslim leader of Congress with twelve members of his family were surrounded by the bloodthirsty mob in his house. The helpless man first sought police protection and failing he telephoned Sonia Gandhi to Delhi for help. Sonia Gandhi was not in power then but rang Narendra Modi to arrange immediate protection for the family.

The request was ignored and the whole family was massacred on that very night. The Chief Minister of Gujarat was blamed for this riot and accused of his complicity in this. Even the court was not in favour of him. After that riot when Narendra Modi wanted to go to visit America, the American government refused him to grant a visa on the ground of his alleged involvement in the riot. But the worldwide condemnation of Narendra Modi could not dislodge him from the power in Gujarat. His development plan for Gujarat was a success and he was praised throughout India for his achievement. His crime against humanity seem almost pardoned or forgotten in India and BJP started promoting him as the next Prime Minister of the country if they win the election.

Now in India the secular democratic forces are fragmented. The Left-Front consisting of CPM, CPI, Forward Block, RSP etc. are not with Congress anymore. Mamata Banerjee, the Trinamool leader of West Bengal is a very unpredictable and volatile character. She already broke away from Congress alliance and whether she will join hands with BJP in the next election is a big question. In many states in India Congress is not in power. Indian democracy is now threatened from Right and Left both sides-from the Right by BJP and from the Left by Maoists. Recently, B C Shukla an ex minister along with many workers and leaders were killed by an attack of Maoists in Jharkhand. Maoist guerrillas are now gaining strength in several states in Eastern India but the main threat for Indian democracy and secularism is BJP and its extreme communal allies. The Congress high command hoped that the emergence of Rahul Gandhi as the Congress leader and his possibility to become the Prime minister of India will thwart the rise of Narendra Modi and help Congress to win the next election. But it was seen that Rahul's charisma and influence did not work in the state election of Uttar Pradesh which was a stronghold of Nehru family.

So Rahul's charisma has also been over shadowed by Narendra Modi's apparent popularity. If the next election of India produced a government headed by BJP and Narendra Modi, then if not democracy, secularism will be seriously threatened in the whole of the subcontinent.

I have already discussed the situation in Pakistan and Bangladesh. The entire subcontinent is under the dark cloud which is gathering on the horizon gradually. The only hope for the subcontinent is that the secular forces in each of the countries will unite and stand for a final showdown. Only the unity of the people can defeat the anti-people and communal forces in the ensuing battle.