To be or not to be that is the question about the next general election of Bangladesh. There was a hope that our two ladies after meeting with Oscar Fernanadez-Taranco, the Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations, will agree to a political dialogue and there will be a settlement between the two leading political parties.

There were ample reasons for the people of Bangladesh to be hopeful about a political dialogue which will produce a settlement between the two warring political parties eventually. For the last few months there were fierce fights between 'Moha Jote' and the 18 party alliance which culminated on 5th May's show down. The uprising of Hefajat assisted by BNP and Jamaat fizzled out after much sound and fury producing nothing.

In this confrontation the government's position was strengthened and the sense of defeatism among the prodemocracy secular circle was removed. It was also hoped that after the failure of BNP and Jamaat to create anarchy in the country to force the government to accept their demands they would agree to come to the negotiation table. This hope was strengthened in the public mind and in our political circle also that with the visit of Mr. Taranco both Sheikh Hasina and Begum Khaleda Zia will be persuaded to meet each other to break the political deadlock.

Somehow this hope now appears to be gradually fading away. BNP is adamant that without a prior commitment from Awami League that Sheikh Hasina will not head the interim government they will not participate in the election. Awami League is also insisting that there can be some sort of interim government for the election but Sheikh Hasina will lead that government. Now what the Prime Minister is saying indicates that she is not going for any dialogue immediately, instead she advised the opposition to come to the Parliament to place their demands. It seems that the two leaders are back to the pavilion.

I am not in favour of a meaningless dialogue. In the past we have seen the effort of mediation between two leaders by ex-American president Jimmy Carter and the commonwealth representative Sir Ninian did not produce any result. This time Mr. Taranco's Dhaka visit produced a ray of hope because his suggestion for unconditional dialogue between the two leaders was initially accepted by both the parties.

It came to press that Syed Ashraf, the General Secretary of Awami League was going to send a letter of formal invitation to the opposition for a meeting. Now it appears that the invitation is postponed. There will be no formal meeting between the two sides at least at present. It dismayed the hopefuls. I expected that there will be at least a breaking of the ice and it will pave way for a fruitful dialogue. At least we could be assured by that dialogue that the imminent general election will be held in time with the full participation of all the political parties including BNP.

Though I do not hope a dialogue on the procedure of election will bring the two major parties to any permanent understanding, but my expectation was this dialogue at least will help the democratic process of the country to overcome the impasse of the present political situation. Many observers of Bangladesh politics are not sure now that this dialogue will be held anytime soon.

Now the million dollar question is whether BNP and its allies will join the election or if Awami League could hold an election without BNP and can get a universal approval. If the deadlock continues and election is held in time then what will be the situation in the country? A group of leading members of the so- called civil society are waiting in the wings with a hope that in the event of a political deadlock they would be able to formulate a policy for running the country bypassing both the leading political parties. They are now very active and announcing different formulas for the salvation of the country. BNP is still in a fighting mood and they are hoping that they would be able to prevent the government to hold the election without them. On the other hand, Awami League government, after their somewhat victory in Shapla square gained confidence that they can hold an election without BNP's participation.

This political situation has created a maze from which nobody knows how to come out.
I have talked to some leading political observers in Dhaka. They think the attempt of a section of elite class to create a third force to replace the present two main parties will not succeed like their previous attempt during 1/11 regime. But they have become very active. They have taken a stand to support the demand for a caretaker government to run the election knowing fully well the system was abused and failed a few times in the past.

This will not help them too to achieve their political agenda. These observers predict though Awami League has taken a hard-line regarding a dialogue with BNP they will have to offer an olive branch to the opposition in the end. On the other hand, BNP will realize that their stubbornness about a caretaker government will not help them. Their so-called movement to force the government to accept their demand has failed. Now the only option is dialogue and discussion.

If they do not come to the negotiation table and do not participate in the election their very existence may be in danger. A new BNP may emerge in the political field bypassing the family monopoly in the leadership. Or, a new opposition party may form replacing BNP as the main opposition in the parliament. This may be a possible scenario in Bangladesh politics in near future.

I am very much optimistic that Bangladesh will avoid a catastrophe and go for democratic stability by holding a general election in time.