BNP and its allies are charting out plans for a fresh movement in a bid to dislodge the government. True, the objective situation created by the government itself by its follies and misdeeds have given the ground ready for response from the public to cause a stir. But it is unlikely to happen. All available indications suggest that Awami League will be able to complete its tenure that ends in early 2014.
BNP is in disarray with sharp differences among its senior leaders. Confidence of grassroots workers in the leadership has waned as many of them who were picked up by the police from anti-government demonstrations and detained in jail for long went uncared for by the party.

Awami League, on the other hand, is quite apt in tackling the street movement. Its tactics of detaining some active opposition leaders on the eve of D-Day and large-scale arrest of workers preventing them from demonstrating during the movement for restoring the caretaker government system and protesting forced disappearance of BNP leader Ilias Ali in the recent past has proved useful strategy. The steps had crippling affect on the opposition. Soon the movement was tamed and the tension on the street diffused to the relief of the government.

However, the anti-government movement being planned after the Eid may be different. In case it takes a turn towards a sustainable mass movement, supported by the forces behind the scene, Awami League is likely to refrain from resorting to harsh actions. For, police excesses on the demonstrators may turn the course of movement to the pre-1/11 situation when political opponents were brutally killed on the street in broad daylight.

In case BNP succeeds in whipping up the movement to a menacing level, Awami League may calm down for a meaningful compromise. It may go for negotiation with the opposition and strike a deal for holding elections even under an interim government with non-political personnel. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has already floated a half way proposal to this end, which has been summarily rejected by the opposition leader Begum Khaleda Zia as a ploy. But one has to realise that in politics, nothing is permanent; it can be changed to the needs of the prevailing situation.

One thing, however, appears certain. Political leaders, especially those of the ruling Awami League, are opposed to the emergence of a non-political third force. They are dreadful about the repetition of late 2006 situation when Fakhruddin Ahmed came to power with the AL’s tacit approval. Backed by the army, Fakhruddin government threw into jail the two quarrelsome leaders Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia as per the minus two plans. The plan was subsequently frustrated by the unpredictable forces. The physical torture in detention of Hawa Bhaban maestro and BNP 2nd in command Tarique Rahman who was touted as future prime minister is vivid in the minds of politicians. Questionable characters among them are unnerved at such a prospect.
It is no wonder that Surunjit Sengupta, Minister without portfolio, in his anxiety recently accused the BNP of trying to create ground of pre-1/11 by calling street agitation. This, he apprehends, is a bid to bring in non-political third force into play. Suranjit is allegedly involved in railway recruitment scam when he was Minister for Railway. A sack full of graft money on way to his residence was seized.

Widespread criticism compelled the government to sack him. But he was retained in the cabinet without portfolio, critics say, at the behest of external pressures. Needless to say Suranjit and many of his comrades in the party including former Communication Minister Abul Hossain are likely to come under proper scrutiny after the fall of Awami League government. It is, therefore, natural that they all will put up their mite to resist the prospect of 1/11.

Indeed, BNP is hopeful of returning to power in the next election. But it will not be an easy sail, albeit impossible with the administration and election officials tilted to the ruling Awami League. And people do no longer believe that today’s BNP is the same party founded by Ziaur Rahman. Most of the senior leaders are not seen around BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia who is vested with all powers unsuitable in a democratic party. They are not taken into confidence in reaching major policy decisions. The recent decision not to take part in the Kapasia by-election has stunned Brig (retired) Hannan Shah who was all set to contest. An elderly leader of Dhaka City BNP has cast doubts at BNP’s electoral prospects. He thought the party needs lot of reforms. BNP should be ready to look away from politics of dynasty, he said requesting anonymity.
He listed some of the gross failures of the party leadership. This included deliberately holding for long five years the Supreme Court verdict on lower court’s death sentence in Bangabandhu murder case and leaving it to the successive Awami League government; refusal to recognize the 2001 warning about RAW infiltration in BNP; ignoring the senior leaders who have significant contributions to the party forcing some senior leaders to leave the party; reluctance to take necessary measures and provide legal assistance to senior party leaders undergoing trial for crimes during the war of liberation. It is high time for BNP to take stock of the situation, and take corrective measures to restore propriety.
(Source, Weekly Holiday, 10/08/201)