The political
situation in Bangladesh has arrived at a cross-road. The government of
the day has been lurching from problems to crises and bumping from there
into disasters.  It has now chosen brute force to silence the
opposition as it has dared to take the failures of the government to the
public. The ruling Awami League is also mad at the main opposition,
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), as it is insisting on the
restoration of the system of non-party care-taker government (CG) during
parliament elections. Awami League wants the national elections to be
staged with itself running the government.

The BNP has, however, shown a capacity
for survival and the ability to stand its ground to challenge the road
roller of governmental oppression.  The crucial question as to how
dangerous the political situation is going to be now depends on how much
more does the ruling Awami League  provoke the opposition and in
reaction to that  how long the latter can keep away from violent
protests. BNP leader M. K. Anwar has said that the government has been
planning to impose a state of emergency, suspending fundamental rights,
after creating chaos in the country.

While the senior leaders of BNP do not
yet wish to take a course that will result in bloodshed, it is known
that they are under pressure from some segments of the party to call
general strikes to protest fatal repression by the government and ruling
party cadres. This pressure increased when five protesters were killed
by police firing during the BNP-led marches on January 29 and 30. The
Awami League government had put an 18-hour ban on processions and
rallies in Dhaka, Chittagong and a number of other places in the country
on January 29 thus foiling BNP's mass-procession programmes on the day
in these places. BNP protested the government order but did not violate
it. It replied by staging huge processions the next day. On the day
before, however, the processions of the opposition at many of those
places where there was no official ban came under physical attack by
police and Awami League activists.  Four persons were killed as a result
of police firing on January 29. Also, more than a thousand were
injured, at least hundred seriously, and several thousand were arrested.

The stark demonstration of naked abuse of
governmental authority by the party in power with a view to suppressing
protests created sharp reaction among the public. Together, the
intensity of public condemnation and BNP's calm but firm response to the
governmental cruelty together have somewhat puzzled the Awami League
leadership. With not much there to talk about, Prime Minister Sheikh
Hasina has asked the people of the country to "remain watchful of
attempts to subvert democracy". She has also warned the opposition of
taking 'legal action' against them if they, in her words, 'keep
opposing' the ongoing war crimes trial. And joint general secretary of
Awami League Mahbubul Alam Hanif has said that BNP chairperson Begum
Khaleda Zia by announcing that the Awami League government will be
toppled by means of a strong mass movement has in fact admitted that she
is conspiring to overthrow the government. BNP has announced that its
supporters from all over the country will converge to Dhaka on March 12
to demand the restoration of the CG system and the resignation of the
present government as it has failed in its duties.

It may be mentioned here that although
Awami League leaders describe BNP's demand for an early parliament
elections as illegal such early elections have taken place in Bangladesh
in 1988, 1991 and 1996. Early national polls have also taken place in
India.

The major complaints against the present
Awami League government are its failures to reign in inflation, to
prevent the collapse of the share market, to control the chaos in the
economy,  to check corruption in government , to stop widespread
violence by its cadres, to improve the law and order situation, to put
an end to extra-judicial killings,  and to gain any advantage from India
while doing that country's bidding in every matter. Partisanship in
recruitment of top government jobs is another reason for discontentment
against the present Awami League government.

Meanwhile, the Bangla daily newspaper
Jugantor has published a survey in which it is shown that the ruling
Awami League will suffer a crushing defeat if Jatiya Sangsad
(parliament) elections were held right now. According to the survey
Awami League will win only 69 out of the 300 general constituencies in
the country while BNP will emerge victorious at 170. The Jugantor
newspaper's correspondents carried out the survey and the paper has
published a constituency by constituency analysis. The Jugantor survey
is in line with the findings of surveys carried out by two newspapers
last month.